AI Chip Rout Tests the IPO Window: Nscale, Firmus, Anthropic
AI chip stocks have just had their longest losing streak since 2008, yet two key suppliers reported strong results this week, so the strain is in financing and listings rather than in orders.
Key takeaways
- The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed lower eight sessions in a row to 16 October 2026, down about 15.7% from its 6 October close, according to TECHi's calculation from daily closes [1].
- ASML (14 October) said its planned 2027 and 2028 supply will not fully meet demand, and TSMC (15 October) reported third-quarter revenue up 41.2% in US dollars [2][3].
- Firmus scrapped its roughly $5 billion Australian IPO on 9 October, and Bloomberg reported on 18 October that investors want a lower Nscale valuation. The Nscale report is not independently confirmed [4][5][6].
- Anthropic said on 18 October it will pledge 5% of its shares to a public benefit fund, subject to stockholder approval, and is planning an IPO as soon as November [7][8].
What happened
Chips. The index fell on 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15 and 16 October, ending the streak at 11,137.29 [1]. TECHi, which worked from Yahoo Finance closes, says no single cause explains it. Rising rates do not fit, because the 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 5.27% to 5.09% over the period [1]. Its own reading is that financing worries about AI infrastructure companies fit the pattern best [1].
Asia, 13 October. According to the Associated Press, South Korea's Kospi fell 5.5%, SK hynix 10.1% and Samsung Electronics 7.4%. In Japan, SoftBank Group fell 8.5% and Tokyo Electron 7.2% [9]. The trigger cited was China's CXMT. Its president said the company plans a server DDR5 memory chip with a denser "4F-square" cell design by the end of 2026, as reported by the Korea Times citing the South China Morning Post [10]. Industry officials quoted there stress that yields, customer approval and orders are unconfirmed, and that CXMT lacks EUV lithography tools because of US export controls [10].
Neoclouds. On 14 October a graph showing a $1.25 billion batch of CoreWeave bonds briefly yielding above 15% spread on social media. CoreWeave shares fell 15.5% that day, Oracle fell 8.8% and Dell about 11.3% [11]. Fortune reports CoreWeave's first-half revenue at $4.6 billion with a $1.4 billion net loss, $35.6 billion of debt and $16.3 billion of lease liabilities, against a $103.7 billion contracted backlog [12]. CoreWeave's chief executive reportedly told staff the market was "acting irrationally" [11].
Listings. Firmus, an Nvidia-backed Australian data centre operator, shelved its ASX listing on 9 October, citing volatile markets. Reuters says it had planned about $5 billion at a $30.6 billion equity valuation, and that demand was lukewarm and its debt load a concern. Reuters does not label the currency [4][5]. On 18 October, Bloomberg reported that Nscale, the UK cloud firm planning a New York listing, faces pushback on a target of about $30 billion, with some investors urging $16 billion to $19 billion. Reuters said it could not verify the report [6][13]. Nscale's last private round valued it at $14.6 billion, according to Trending Topics, which also cites the Telegraph for Microsoft's reported exit from Nscale's Essex site, covered in our 18 October article [14].
Anthropic. Reuters and the Associated Press report that Anthropic announced on Sunday 18 October that it will commit 5% of its shares to a new public benefit fund, with the board able to add 2% for each 50% rise in company value above an undisclosed baseline [7][8]. About 20% of shares would then serve public purposes, and Anthropic is planning an IPO as soon as November [7][8].
Why it matters
The two chip suppliers at the base of the stack are not signalling weakness. ASML reported third-quarter sales of €11.7 billion and said its planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand [2]. TSMC reported US$46.72 billion in revenue, up 41.2% in US dollars, and guided to US$52.3 billion to US$54.3 billion for the fourth quarter [3].
Our analysis: that gap between strong orders and falling prices points to the money behind the buildout. Companies that borrowed heavily to buy chips, and memory makers facing a new Chinese competitor, took the hardest hits. Listings are the next test, because an IPO needs investors to accept a price.
The global picture
United States: chip, neocloud and Oracle shares led the fall [1][11]. South Korea and Japan: memory and chip-equipment names sold off on 13 October [9]; Aju Press says the Kospi had fallen more than 14% in the week before closing up 1.76% on 19 October [15]. China: CXMT's claim moved global markets before any product was shown [10]. Europe and Taiwan: ASML and TSMC supplied the strongest data points [2][3]. Australia and UK: the two cancelled or pressured listings [4][6]. Gulf, India, Russia: no matching new item in our checks.
What to watch next
- Nscale: whether it prices near $30 billion or closer to the $16 billion to $19 billion range; nothing is final, per reports [14].
- Anthropic: its stockholder vote on the 5% pledge and the IPO timetable; it says more detail will follow in the coming months [7].
- CXMT: evidence of yields, customers and shipments for the 4F-square product [10].
- CoreWeave: bond yields and whether contracted revenue turns into cash [12].
Our take
Demand is not the question right now; the price of money is. Treat a falling chip index and a strong supplier report as two different signals, and judge each AI listing by its debt, its customers and its power access, not by the headline backlog. This is analysis, not a forecast.
FAQ
Did AI demand fall? Not according to ASML and TSMC, which reported strong results and guidance [2][3].
Is Nscale's valuation cut confirmed? No. Bloomberg reported investor pushback; Reuters could not verify it [6][13].
Has Anthropic filed publicly for an IPO? Not in the reports we read. They say it is planning one as soon as November [7][8].
Was CXMT's chip proven? No. It was announced, with yields and customers unconfirmed [10].
AI Worldwire is independent and has no commercial relationship with the companies covered, unless stated. This is analysis, not financial advice.
Sources
- Chip stocks fall eighth day, longest streak since 2008, TECHi, 17 October 2026. Index levels calculated by TECHi from Yahoo Finance closes; Tier 2.
- ASML reports Q3 2026 results (Form 6-K), ASML via SEC, 14 October 2026. Tier 1.
- TSMC 3Q26 earnings release (Form 6-K), TSMC via SEC, 15 October 2026. Tier 1.
- Nvidia-backed Firmus scraps $5 billion Australia IPO amid growing AI scrutiny, Reuters via Euronext, 9 October 2026.
- Neocloud Firmus cancels IPO, blames market volatility, Data Center Dynamics, 9 October 2026.
- AI Cloud Firm Nscale Faces Investor Pushback Over IPO Valuation, Bloomberg, 18 October 2026. Paywalled; read in part.
- Anthropic to commit 5% stake to new public benefit fund, Reuters via Yahoo Finance, 18 October 2026.
- Anthropic commits 5% of its stock to new public benefit fund ahead of IPO, AP via Business Standard, 19 October 2026.
- Global semiconductor sell-off over AI boom worries pulls Asian shares lower, AP via ITV News, 13 October 2026.
- CXMT's new DRAM tech to test Korean memory makers' dominance, The Korea Times, 13 October 2026. Cites the South China Morning Post.
- Shares of Oracle, neoclouds drop on CoreWeave debt concerns, SiliconANGLE, 14 October 2026.
- CoreWeave investor explains how the neocloud will claw its way out of debt, Fortune, 16 October 2026. Company figures from its second-quarter release, as reported.
- AI cloud firm Nscale faces investor pushback over IPO valuation, Bloomberg News reports, Reuters via TradingView, 18 October 2026.
- Nscale loses Microsoft before its IPO, and its valuation wobbles, Trending Topics, 19 October 2026. Secondary; cites Bloomberg and the Telegraph; Tier 2.
- South Korean stocks rebound as battery, biotech shares lead recovery, Aju Press, 19 October 2026.
AI Worldwire is independent and has no commercial relationship with the companies covered, unless stated. Research and drafting are assisted by AI; every article is reviewed and approved by a human editor before publication. Subscribe to the AI Worldwire newsletter. Last updated: 19 October 2026.